Bad Strategy Will Kill Some Carmaking Giants Soon, Reports IDTechEx Research

Bad Strategy Will Kill Some Carmaking Giants Soon, Reports IDTechEx Research

14.02.2019: Bad strategy rather than tactics, such as misjudged new models, will kill several major automotive companies, reports business intelligence firm IDTechEx. These companies face a perfect storm of peak car, totally new technology, totally new

Bad strategy rather than tactics, such as misjudged new models, will kill several major automotive companies, reports business intelligence firm IDTechEx. These companies face a perfect storm of peak car, totally new technology, totally new markets and recession.


 
In the past, giant corporations have successfully reinvented themselves in a remarkably short time. IBM appropriately flipped from computer box shifter to systems and services. It took write-offs and sold its laptop business. Rolls Royce in aeroengines leapt from the little car company.


 
Compared with that, most of today's automakers are suicidally timid right now. Those in denial about pure electric vehicles hope they are buying time with 48V mild hybrids but all too often the ones they make have diesel engines! Indeed, Jaguar Land Rover has gone from one of the world's most profitable car companies to billions of dollars in losses by trying to sell mainly diesel throughout its range, oblivious to diesel becoming a four letter word.
 


Some are strongly backing both pure electric and fuel cell hybrid vehicles, with billions of dollars. Will that leave their pure electric thrust underfunded compared to more focused competition? And prioritizing cars for both powertrains? Oh dear. Most seem in denial about peak car and the inevitable peak electric car that will follow.


 
These threats are being pulled much nearer by a host of escalating negatives, including the drop in young people getting driving licenses or being able to afford a car. As they move to cities, their disposable income vanishes into rent.
 


Indeed, the UK and much of Europe has already reached peak car. In 2018, echoing long term trends measured in North America, a UK Government-backed study revealed under a third of those aged 17-20 hold a driving license, down from nearly half in the early 1990s.


 
Car usage is also significantly down but not primarily because of increased use of public transport. Likely causes include “long-term change in the nature of employment” together with “increasing use of smartphones and computers". The driving test increases in difficulty, the cost of driving grows, and young people living with their parents for longer than they used to were also cited as possible reasons.



 
The tsunami builds with the US-China trade war and the US being on a sugar rush from a borrowing splurge at the top of the cycle.



Those primarily making cars should be terrified but not surprised. Both RethinkX and Barclays Research predicted global peak car as early as 2022 or so, and the new negatives make it possible they will be right, partly for new reasons.
 


Belatedly, investors wrote down auto company valuations by $100 billion recently. Particularly hit were ones late into robot vehicles and pure electric vehicles.
 



No traditional car maker is rapidly pivoting into other activities leveraging their skills. It is challenging because no emerging EV sectors are big enough to replace the huge car market: automakers have to select and win at several taken from, for instance, electric aircraft, buses and trucks, energy independent boats, solar agribots which are likely to be triple the volume of e-bikes in 2029 (according to IDTechEx Research), unmanned mining that arrived for the first time in 2018 or mobility for the disabled including exoskeletons. Another example is electrified construction vehicles.
 


Much is made of Beijing being entirely on battery buses now but even the Chinese still make two internal combustion buses for every battery bus. Around 1.5 million school buses will be electrified worldwide when the price is right thanks to someone innovating with "born electric" models.
 


There are plenty of potential acquisitions. Look how diesel maker Cummins is urgently reinventing itself in the electrical component space with a string of acquisitions. Axletech launched a full range of e-axles in only one year, targeting heavy commercial vehicles not facing peak anything. Contrast some carmakers merging on the false premise that two turkeys make an eagle.
 


To survive in cars, you need to succeed in energy independent solar cars (Lightyear, Sono, Hanergy etc.) and the car derivative called the robot shuttle. You must lead in key components such as power electronics.



Competitors of Tesla have struggled to match, let alone beat its powertrain efficiencies: its reinvented motors have proved tough to match. See the IDTechEx Research report, "Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles Land Water Air 2019-2029".
 


Robot shuttles are all much the same. Where are the smart windows making electricity and displaying moving colour advertisements (see the DTechEx report on smart glass), supercapacitor and solar bodywork to name but a few? Tesla reportedly promises a high density midi bus with no aisle. Perhaps that means one side is an enormous falcon door opening to rows of four seats each and no driver? Made out of smart glass it would not be claustrophobic. Now that would show innovation.



Seven car makers are strongly developing solar bodywork. Five Tier One suppliers have bought into advanced motors and their controls. The Chinese are buying technology companies with the appropriate fervour but strategy and courage are notably absent in most of the auto industry.
 


IDTechEx has long pointed out that the electric vehicle business embraces land, water and air with new sectors enjoying around $50 billion sales appearing all over the place by 2029. Some participants are entering "left field" such as Komatsu introducing massive pure electric mining trucks, supercapacitor regenerative braking of vehicles and their implements and other new electric technologies right across the construction, agriculture and mining EV sectors.



Such powertrains can then be applied elsewhere. See the IDTechEx Research report, "Electric Vehicles in Construction, Agriculture and Mining 2019-2029".
 


Making just a more luxurious version of a Tesla, Nissan, SAIC or other winning pure electric car but with shorter range is a death wish that we see played out every month nowadays.
 


Daimler is the world's largest truck maker. IDTechEx calculates that there are ten times as many trucks as buses in the world and the technology is just coming right for them all to be electrified. So why has Daimler let start up Nikola create the biggest orderbook for an electric Class 8 truck followed by Tesla?



Daimler has lost market share in buses for years and its Mercedes division is late into autonomy and electric cars. So where are the strategy, the necessary write-offs and the bold acquisitions taking it into the future?
 


The IDTechEx conference ‘Electric Vehicles: Everything is Changing’, held on April 10-11 in Berlin, explores opportunities across the entire electric vehicle spectrum. The focus is the fastest-growing alternative electric vehicle segments, from boats to bicycles, as well as the technologies adding the most value as batteries become commoditized: electric motors and power electronics.
 


What is the tick list for a future survivor in the auto industry? Maybe a start could be:



1. Strong position in quite large EV growth markets such as construction, agriculture, mining, urban transport beyond cars, aircraft, boats, ships.


2. Speed in going 100% pure electric.


3. Autonomy leadership - creative application in new sectors as much as technology.


4. Strong balance sheet (sorry Tesla).


5. In fast growing EV sectors where China is never going to be the dominant regional market.


6. Inside the massive, protected market of China which took a rare breather in 2018 with a 3% decline in car sales, its first drop since 1990, but still 28 million units compared to 17.27 million for the USA at number two.





For more information on IDTechEx’s comprehensive research on electric vehicles, off-grid energy, energy storage, materials, robotics and more visit www.IDTechEx.com/research/ev.



IDTechEx guides your strategic business decisions through its Research, Consultancy Events services, helping you profit from emerging technologies. Find out more at www.IDTechEx.com.
 




Charlotte Martin,Charlotte Hibbert,  IDTechEx Ltd.


Permanent-URL: http://www.automobilsport.com/bad-strategy-kill-carmaking-giants-idtechex-research---186417.html

14.02.2019 / MaP

More News

KPMG: Autonomes Fahren- Niederlande sind am besten gerüstet
12.02.2019
KPMG reiht 25 Länder weltweit nach ihrer Bereitschaft für automatisierte Mobilität.  TOP10 Land     Rang 2019     Rang 2018Niederlande      1     1Singapur      2     2 more >>
Tungsram Joins Europe's Elite Innovation Club
31.01.2019
The lighting company has signed a cooperation agreement with leading European digital transformation organisation EIT Digital Tungsram has joined Europe’s elite innovation club with over two hundred members in nine countries. Managing an annual budget of more than €100 million, EIT Digital seeks to identify and support globally viab more >>
Groupe PSA starts autonomous driving tests on open roads in China
30.01.2019
•    Today, Groupe PSA obtained a licence to start autonomous driving tests on open roads in China (Chongqing).  •    As the first French carmaker to do so in China, Groupe PSA demonstrates its leading position in the develo more >>
VW - Only a united Europe can master structural change and safeguard social accord ..
29.01.2019
Volkswagen Board Member for Human Resources   Kilian commits to intensive efforts for the transformation to e-mobility: “We strive to be pioneers in e-mobility and are therefore investing some €30 billion”    Board Member for Human Resources asks political leaders to exercise discretion and use a sense more >>
MWCapital, SEAT, Telefónica, Ficosa, ETRA and i2CAT promote a Connected Car pilot Project
28.01.2019
    The agreement will allow for the incorporation of SEAT, Ficosa and ETRA in 5G Barcelona, an initiative promoted by MWCapital, i2CAT and others that also involves Telefónic more >>
Dialog with researchers into the future at Audi
25.01.2019
...about digitization, dilemmas and diversity Audi is to launch a new annual series of public lectures under the heading “Science in Dialogue” on Tuesday, January 29. A total of twelve theme evenings will focus on the most diverse facets of rapid global change. more >>
Imaginative thinking used to engineer the Lexus UX 250h self-charging hybrid
24.01.2019
Hundreds of Lexus engineers and technicians spent nearly five years developing the new UX 250h crossover. Working to an incredibly demanding brief, they left no stone unturned in creating one of the most advanced vehicles Lexus has ever buil more >>
Porsche invests in US start-up "Urgent.ly"
23.01.2019
Platform for mobility and roadside assistanceInvestment in artificial intelligence: Porsche has invested in start-up “Urgent.ly”. The American company sees itself as the leading global platform for mobility and roadside assistance. more >>
Volkswagen invests in US start-up Forge Nano
23.01.2019
   Volkswagen Group invests US$10 million in US startup “Forge Nano Inc.“    Forge Nano is investigating innovative coatings for battery materials photo caption:  Dr. Axel Heinrich, Head of Volkswagen Group Research more >>
Porsche tests NOx-absorbing surface technology
22.01.2019
Modern architecture for fresh airMoving towards a “Zero Impact Factory”: Porsche is using a nitrogen dioxide-absorbing surface technology for the first time on parts of the facade of the new factory built for production of the Porsche Taycan. The f more >>
Honda Walking Assist Device Receives Clearance from U.S. Food and Drug Administration
10.01.2019
Lightweight device has been demonstrated to benefit stroke patients with gait issues Honda announced today that it has received Premarket Notification from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA more >>
BMW Group at the 2019 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas
08.01.2019
- Bringing the future to life: first virtual drive in the BMW Vision iNEXT.- The personal companion and new digital services from BMW.- The BMW Intelligent Personal Assistant – today and in the future.- Digital services for electric-vehicle charging.  more >>
Audi at the 2019 CES Las Vegas
08.01.2019
From driving experience to experience the drive:    Audi is bringing the thrill of a theme park into the car with “Audi Immersive In-Car Entertainment”        “Audi Experience Ride”: technolog more >>
Honda Dream Drive to Deliver Next-Generation Infotainment
08.01.2019
... Commerce, Services and Rewards to Drivers and Passengers    Honda Innovations collaborates with leading consumer brands and retailers to create new in-vehicle experience    Demos of prototyp more >>
CES Las Vegas 2019: Rinspeed presents the further advanced “Snap” ecosystem with the “microSNAP”
08.01.2019
“Honey, I shrunk the “Snap!”“Think mighty micro!” is now the new Rinspeed motto at the CES 2019. Company head Frank M. Rinderknecht has shrunk the “Snap” into the “microSNAP” with the dimensions of more >>
Audi turns the car into a virtual reality experience platform at CES
07.01.2019
Audi turns the car into a virtual reality experience platform at CES Audi turns the car into a virtual reality experience platform at CES and presents a technology that adopts virtual content to the movements of a vehicle in real time. more >>
Hyundai Motor Group Unveils Innovative Electric Vehicle Charging
03.01.2019
....and Automated Parking Systems Concept The System to enable smoother EV charging experience with autonomous featureHyundai Motor Company and Kia Motors Corporation unveiled a video featuring the concept of electr more >>
Volkswagen offers First Glimpse of Mobile Charging Statio
27.12.2018
Electrifying World Premiere: Power bank for electric cars – the mobile quick charging station by Volkswagen Group Components.    Flexible charging station can support the stationary development of a charging infra more >>
Kia prepares for post-autonomous driving era with AI-based real-time emotion recognition technology
20.12.2018
•    Kia to unveil new in-car tech for the future ‘emotive driving’ era at CES 2019•    R.E.A.D. System is the automotive industry’s first technology converging human senses-oriented in-cabin environment control and AI-based emotional intelligence more >>
BMW Group at the CES 2019 in Las Vegas
20.12.2018
- Virtual drive in the BMW Vision iNEXT.At this year’s Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, the BMW Group will showcase the future of driving pleasure and the potential of digital connectivity in a variety of different ways. more >>
BMW Group Autonomous Driving Campus - interview with Elmar Frickenstein
20.12.2018
The BMW Group Autonomous Driving Campus: the first 450 days.  Six questions for Elmar Frickenstein, Senior Vice President Automated Driving and Driver Assistance, BMW AG.In September 2017, you and your team moved to the Autonomous more >>
SEAT joins Alastria for the development of blockchain technology-based solutions
18.12.2018
SEAT - First carmaker in the National blockchain ecosystem•    Alastria is a semi-public multisectorial blockchain infrastructure promoted by Spanish businesses and institutions•    Different company more >>
The Audi e-tron as the solution to the puzzle: a new experience at Munich Airport
14.12.2018
Excitement guaranteed: The new Audi e-tron is now at the heart of a specially developed strategy game at Munich Airport. Customers and other interested parties can playfully explore the first fully electric Audi and the topic of electric mobility in an “Escape more >>
Research project “FastCharge”: ultra-fast charging technology
13.12.2018
...ready for the electrically powered vehicles of the future.   Increase in charging capacity to as much as 450 kW – industry consortium develops technology to make charging electric vehicles as fast and convenient as fuelling with petr more >>
Volkswagen Toolmaking opens highly advanced 3-D printing center
11.12.2018
Producing for the future Official opening with 3-D scissors: (from left to right) Oliver Schauerte, Head of Research, Materials and Production Processes, Eckhard Ritz, Head of Toolmaking, Volkswagen brand, and Uwe Schwartz, Head of Planning, Volkswagen more >>
Daimler buys battery cells in a total volume of 20 billion euros
11.12.2018
Consistent implementation of the CASE corporate strategy.Dr. Dieter Zetsche, Chairman of the Board of Management of Daimler AG and Head of Mercedes-Benz Cars: “Our electric offensive continues to gain momentum. After investing billions of eur more >>
Hyundai Motor Group Reveals FCEV Vision 2030
11.12.2018
Hyundai Motor Group Reveals FCEV Vision 2030 •    ‘FCEV Vision 2030’ highlights Hyundai Motor Group (HMG)’s commitment to accelerate the development of a hydrogen society• more >>
CES Las Vegas 2019: Rinspeed presents the further advanced “Snap” ecosystem with the “microSNAP”
06.12.2018
“Honey, I shrunk the “Snap!” With the “Snap,” presented at the CES in Las Vegas in early 2018, Swiss powerhouse of ideas Rinspeed for the first time presented a vehicle, where the chassis (“Skateboards“) and bodies (“Pods”) can be swapped out at any time. more >>
Works meeting in Wolfsburg: praise for team’s achievements and look ahead to electric strategy
29.11.2018
Kilian: Wolfsburg’s course for the future is set    Osterloh: Wolfsburg is enabling the transformation    Realignment of the Volkswagen brand is speeding up At works meeting held at the Wolfsburg plant, Board Member for Human Resources Gunnar Kilian and Works Council Chairman more >>
BMW Group uses virtual reality to design future production workstations
29.11.2018
A glimpse of the futureVirtual reality is increasingly finding use in BMW Group production. A few months before production of the new BMW 3 Series ramped up in Munich, BMW Group planners have completely laid out individua more >>
Volkswagen Group China, JAC and SEAT sign new deal, driving forward e-mobility in China
28.11.2018
Further step forward in SEAT’s globalisation strategy •    A memorandum of understanding signed by Volkswagen Group China, JAC and SEAT marks a significant step forward as the partners seek to intensify e-mobility development more >>
Porsche Consulting now in Silicon Valley
27.11.2018
New office with direct access to major innovation networksPorsche Consulting has opened a new office in Belmont, California. The most innovative IT and technology companies are their neighbors in Silicon Valley. more >>
Audi, Airbus and Italdesign test Flying Taxi Concept
27.11.2018
Modular “Pop.Up Next” model flies and drives at Amsterdam Drone Week        Board member for sourcing and IT, Dr. Bernd Martens: “Flying taxis are on the way”        Audi and Airbus test on-demand service with helicopters in South America more >>
Modes of transport and communities establish new networks at Hypermotion 2018
27.11.2018
2,545 participants from 20 countries (2017: 2,673 from 18 countries), including 138 companies, 36 start-ups and over 200 speakers, established new networks during the three days of Hypermotion. The focus was on disruptive ideas and the intelligent netw more >>
Vehicles equipped with Toyota Safety Sense reach 10 million units globally
26.11.2018
Toyota Safety Sense is available 68 countries and regions, with expansion to approximately 100 by 2020 plannedInstalled in 90 percent of new Toyota vehicles in Japan, North America and EuropeRear-end collisions reduced by 70% and up to 90% if combined with ICS more >>
Boosting research and innovation in Europe beyond 2020
21.11.2018
The European Parliament’s Industry, Research and Energy Committee has approved two reports on Horizon Europe, a major EU research and innovation programme. Horizon Europe is about ensuring that Europe remains highly competitive more >>
Volkswagen is investing in the future
16.11.2018
Volkswagen to spend almost €44 billion on e-mobility, autonomous driving, new mobility services and digitalization in vehicles and at plants through 2023    Focus on further improvement in earnings to secure the financial basis for the significant more >>
Volkswagen nominates further battery cell supplier
13.11.2018
South Korean manufacturer SK Innovation (SKI) completes group of strategic suppliers for battery cells in all major world regions.    Board Member for Procurement Sommer: “With SK Innovation, LG Chem, Samsung and CATL, we have found strong partners for the long-term supply of cells for our rapidly growing electric fleet.” more >>
Hyundai, Kia Invest Additional US$250 Million in Grab
07.11.2018
•    Grab, Hyundai and Kia will create a Southeast Asia-wide electric vehicle (EV) partnership aimed at driving the adoption of EVs in the region•    Hyundai Motor Group’s automotive affiliates Hyundai and Kia join Grab’s current financing round, which has raised US$2.7 billion to date• &nb more >>

2001-2019 automobilsport.com full copyright